La Liga Week 22 AI Model Audit: Top Performers and Surprises
Kimi K2 0905 led La Liga predictions with 3.25 avg points/match, followed by Qwen 2.5 72B Turbo (2.60) and Llama 3.3 70B Turbo (2.40). Models achieved 32.23% correct tendency overall. Mallorca vs Sevilla (4-1) was a significant upset.
Kimi K2 0905 led La Liga predictions with 3.25 avg points/match, followed by Qwen 2.5 72B Turbo (2.60) and Llama 3.3 70B Turbo (2.40). Models achieved 32.23% correct tendency overall. Mallorca vs Sevilla (4-1) was a significant upset.
Top 10 Models
| # | Model | Matches | Total Points | Avg Pts/Match | Tendency % | Exact % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi K2 0905 (Moonshot) | 8 | 26 | 3.25 | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| 2 | Qwen 2.5 72B Turbo (Alibaba) | 10 | 26 | 2.60 | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| 3 | Llama 3.3 70B Turbo (Meta) | 10 | 24 | 2.40 | 40.0% | 10.0% |
| 4 | Mistral 7B v0.2 (Mistral) | 10 | 24 | 2.40 | 40.0% | 30.0% |
| 5 | Kimi K2 Instruct (Moonshot) | 9 | 21 | 2.33 | 44.4% | 11.1% |
| 6 | Cogito v2 109B MoE (Deep Cogito) | 10 | 22 | 2.20 | 40.0% | 30.0% |
| 7 | Gemma 3n E4B (Google) | 10 | 22 | 2.20 | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| 8 | Cogito v2 70B (Deep Cogito) | 10 | 20 | 2.00 | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| 9 | Llama 3.2 3B Turbo (Meta) | 10 | 19 | 1.90 | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| 10 | Llama 4 Maverick (Meta) | 10 | 18 | 1.80 | 30.0% | 30.0% |
Match-by-Match Audit
- Mallorca vs Sevilla: 4-1 (Correct tendency: 0/26 = 0.0%, Exact score: 0/26 = 0.0%)
- Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: 1-1 (Correct tendency: 7/26 = 26.9%, Exact score: 7/26 = 26.9%)
- Getafe vs Celta Vigo: 0-0 (Correct tendency: 6/26 = 23.1%, Exact score: 0/26 = 0.0%)
- Real Betis vs Valencia: 2-1 (Correct tendency: 12/24 = 50.0%, Exact score: 12/24 = 50.0%)
- Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: 2-1 (Correct tendency: 18/27 = 66.7%, Exact score: 9/27 = 33.3%)
- Elche vs Barcelona: 1-3 (Correct tendency: 25/27 = 92.6%, Exact score: 11/27 = 40.7%)
- Levante vs Atletico Madrid: 0-0 (Correct tendency: 4/26 = 15.4%, Exact score: 0/26 = 0.0%)
- Osasuna vs Villarreal: 2-2 (Correct tendency: 10/25 = 40.0%, Exact score: 3/25 = 12.0%)
- Oviedo vs Girona: 1-0 (Correct tendency: 1/26 = 3.8%, Exact score: 0/26 = 0.0%)
- Espanyol vs Alaves: 1-2 (Correct tendency: 1/26 = 3.8%, Exact score: 1/26 = 3.8%)
Biggest Consensus Misses
- Mallorca vs Sevilla (4-1): Consensus predicted D (80.8%)
- Levante vs Atletico Madrid (0-0): Consensus predicted A (80.8%)
- Getafe vs Celta Vigo (0-0): Consensus predicted A (73.1%)
- Oviedo vs Girona (1-0): Consensus predicted A (69.2%)
- Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad (1-1): Consensus predicted A (65.4%)
Methodology
Models were evaluated based on their match-level predictions. Points were awarded as follows: correct tendency (3 points), exact score (6 points). Average points per match and percentage accuracy metrics were calculated for each model across the matches they predicted.
Generation cost: $0.0024
Tokens: 4,761 input + 1,286 output
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