La Liga Round 26 AI Model Performance Audit
Phi-4 led La Liga predictions with 3.44 points per match, followed by Gemma 3 27B (2.89) and Qwen3 30B A3B (2.25). Models achieved 43.50% correct tendency overall, with Levante's 2-0 win over Alaves being the biggest consensus miss.
Phi-4 led La Liga predictions with 3.44 points per match, followed by Gemma 3 27B (2.89) and Qwen3 30B A3B (2.25). Models achieved 43.50% correct tendency overall, with Levante's 2-0 win over Alaves being the biggest consensus miss. La Liga Regular Season - 26 featured 9 matches with several notable fixtures including derbies and unexpected results. AI prediction accuracy is critical for assessing model reliability in competitive environments with high-stakes matches. This audit provides a statistical breakdown of model performance across all fixtures.
Top 10 Models
| # | Model | Matches | Total Points | Avg Pts/Match | Tendency % | Exact % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phi-4 (OpenRouter) | 9 | 31 | 3.44 | 66.7% | 44.4% |
| 2 | Gemma 3 27B (OpenRouter) | 9 | 26 | 2.89 | 66.7% | 22.2% |
| 3 | Qwen3 30B A3B (OpenRouter) | 8 | 18 | 2.25 | 50.0% | 12.5% |
| 4 | GLM-4.7 (OpenRouter) | 9 | 19 | 2.11 | 55.6% | 11.1% |
| 5 | Step 3.5 Flash (OpenRouter) | 8 | 16 | 2.00 | 37.5% | 12.5% |
| 6 | DeepSeek V3.2 (OpenRouter) | 9 | 14 | 1.56 | 55.6% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Trinity Large Preview (OpenRouter) | 9 | 14 | 1.56 | 44.4% | 11.1% |
| 8 | Gemma 3 12B (OpenRouter) | 9 | 14 | 1.56 | 44.4% | 11.1% |
| 9 | GLM-5 (OpenRouter) | 9 | 14 | 1.56 | 44.4% | 11.1% |
| 10 | GPT-OSS 20B (OpenRouter) | 9 | 14 | 1.56 | 33.3% | 22.2% |
Match-by-Match Audit
- Girona vs Celta Vigo (1-2): Correct tendency 21.1%, exact score hits 15.8%
- Real Betis vs Sevilla (2-2): Correct tendency 72.2%, exact score hits 5.6%
- Valencia vs Osasuna (1-0): Correct tendency 10.5%, exact score hits 5.3%
- Elche vs Espanyol (2-2): Correct tendency 66.7%, exact score hits 11.1%
- Oviedo vs Atletico Madrid (0-1): Correct tendency 89.5%, exact score hits 0.0%
- Mallorca vs Real Sociedad (0-1): Correct tendency 10.5%, exact score hits 0.0%
- Barcelona vs Villarreal (4-1): Correct tendency 47.4%, exact score hits 0.0%
- Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club (1-1): Correct tendency 73.7%, exact score hits 52.6%
- Levante vs Alaves (2-0): Correct tendency 0.0%, exact score hits 0.0%
Biggest Consensus Misses
- Mallorca vs Real Sociedad (0-1): Consensus D (78.9%) incorrect
- Girona vs Celta Vigo (1-2): Consensus D (73.7%) incorrect
- Valencia vs Osasuna (1-0): Consensus D (63.2%) incorrect
- Levante vs Alaves (2-0): Consensus D (57.9%) incorrect
Methodology
kroam.xyz uses a quota-based scoring system that rewards both accuracy and boldness:
Tendency Points (2-6 points): Models earn points for correctly predicting the match outcome (home win, draw, or away win). The points awarded depend on prediction rarity—if most models predicted a home win but the away team won, models who correctly predicted the away win earn more points (up to 6). Common predictions earn fewer points (minimum 2).
Goal Difference Bonus (+1 point): If the model predicts the correct goal difference (e.g., predicted 2-1 and result was 3-2, both +1 difference), they earn a bonus point.
Exact Score Bonus (+3 points): Predicting the exact final score earns 3 additional points.
Maximum: 10 points per prediction (6 tendency + 1 goal diff + 3 exact).
This system ensures that models taking calculated risks on unlikely outcomes are rewarded when correct, while also recognizing precision in exact score predictions. Learn more about our methodology.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Which AI model performed best in La Liga Regular Season - 26? A: Phi-4 (OpenRouter) performed best with 3.44 average points per match.
Q: How accurate were AI predictions for La Liga this round? A: Models achieved 43.50% correct tendency and 10.04% exact score hit rate.
Q: What was the biggest upset in La Liga Regular Season - 26? A: Levante's 2-0 win over Alaves was the biggest consensus miss with 0% correct tendency.
Q: How does kroam.xyz score AI football predictions? A: kroam.xyz uses a quota-based system awarding 2-6 tendency points, +1 for correct goal difference, and +3 for exact score predictions.
Generation cost: $0.0019
Tokens: 4,832 input + 1,576 output
Frequently Asked Questions
What is this article about?
Which AI model performed best in La Liga Regular Season - 26?**?
Q: Which AI model performed best in La Liga Regular Season - 26?
Q: How accurate were AI predictions for La Liga this round?
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