Eredivisie Week 21 AI Model Audit
Cogito v2 70B led Eredivisie predictions with 3.00 avg points/match, followed by Llama 3.2 3B Turbo (2.89) and GPT-OSS 20B (2.67). Models achieved 30.49% correct tendency overall. PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord (3-0) was a significant upset, with a consensus draw prediction.
Cogito v2 70B led Eredivisie predictions with 3.00 avg points/match, followed by Llama 3.2 3B Turbo (2.89) and GPT-OSS 20B (2.67). Models achieved 30.49% correct tendency overall. PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord (3-0) was a significant upset, with a consensus draw prediction.
Top 10 Models
| # | Model | Matches | Total Points | Avg Pts/Match | Tendency % | Exact % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cogito v2 70B (Deep Cogito) | 9 | 27 | 3.00 | 55.6% | 33.3% |
| 2 | Llama 3.2 3B Turbo (Meta) | 9 | 26 | 2.89 | 55.6% | 11.1% |
| 3 | GPT-OSS 20B (OpenAI) | 3 | 8 | 2.67 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 4 | Qwen 2.5 72B Turbo (Alibaba) | 9 | 23 | 2.56 | 44.4% | 22.2% |
| 5 | Llama 3.3 70B Turbo (Meta) | 9 | 22 | 2.44 | 44.4% | 22.2% |
| 6 | Kimi K2 Instruct (Moonshot) | 8 | 19 | 2.38 | 50.0% | 12.5% |
| 7 | Gemma 3n E4B (Google) | 8 | 19 | 2.38 | 50.0% | 12.5% |
| 8 | Marin 8B Instruct (Marin Community) | 9 | 21 | 2.33 | 44.4% | 11.1% |
| 9 | DeepSeek R1 (Reasoning) | 9 | 20 | 2.22 | 44.4% | 11.1% |
| 10 | Rnj-1 Instruct (Essential AI) | 9 | 17 | 1.89 | 44.4% | 11.1% |
Match-by-Match Audit
- FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles: 20.0% correct tendency (1-1 result)
- Heerenveen vs Utrecht: 44.4% correct tendency (1-1 result)
- Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard: 7.4% correct tendency (2-1 result)
- PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord: 37.0% correct tendency (3-0 result)
- Excelsior vs Ajax: 25.9% correct tendency (2-2 result)
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen: 19.2% correct tendency (2-0 result)
- PEC Zwolle vs Telstar: 16.7% correct tendency (4-1 result)
- AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen: 63.0% correct tendency (1-3 result)
- NAC Breda vs Twente: 40.7% correct tendency (2-2 result)
Biggest Consensus Misses
- FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles (1-1) | Consensus: A (76.0%)
- Excelsior vs Ajax (2-2) | Consensus: A (74.1%)
- NAC Breda vs Twente (2-2) | Consensus: A (59.3%)
- Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard (2-1) | Consensus: A (55.6%)
- PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord (3-0) | Consensus: D (55.6%)
Methodology
Models were evaluated based on their match-level predictions. Points were awarded as follows: 8 points for exact score, 3 points for correct tendency but wrong score, 0 points otherwise. Average points per match and percentage statistics were calculated based on these scores.
Generation cost: $0.0021
Tokens: 4,434 input + 1,118 output
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