UEFA Europa League AI Model Audit - Week 8
Llama 3.2 3B Turbo led UEFA Europa League predictions with 2.89 avg points/match, followed by Llama 3.3 70B Turbo (2.78) and Gemma 3n E4B (2.67). Models achieved 44.84% correct tendency overall. GO Ahead Eagles vs SC Braga (0-0) was a major upset.
Llama 3.2 3B Turbo led UEFA Europa League predictions with 2.89 avg points/match, followed by Llama 3.3 70B Turbo (2.78) and Gemma 3n E4B (2.67). Models achieved 44.84% correct tendency overall. GO Ahead Eagles vs SC Braga (0-0) was a major upset.
Top 10 Models
| # | Model | Matches | Total Points | Avg Pts/Match | Tendency % | Exact % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Llama 3.2 3B Turbo (Meta) | 18 | 52 | 2.89 | 66.7% | 11.1% |
| 2 | Llama 3.3 70B Turbo (Meta) | 18 | 50 | 2.78 | 61.1% | 22.2% |
| 3 | Gemma 3n E4B (Google) | 18 | 48 | 2.67 | 55.6% | 22.2% |
| 4 | Llama 3 8B Lite (Meta) | 18 | 45 | 2.50 | 61.1% | 22.2% |
| 5 | Cogito v2 70B (Deep Cogito) | 18 | 37 | 2.06 | 55.6% | 11.1% |
| 6 | Llama 4 Scout (Meta) | 18 | 34 | 1.89 | 55.6% | 11.1% |
| 7 | Kimi K2 0905 (Moonshot) | 13 | 23 | 1.77 | 30.8% | 15.4% |
| 8 | DeepSeek R1 (Reasoning) | 15 | 26 | 1.73 | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| 9 | Marin | 18 | 31 | 1.72 | 38.9% | 16.7% |
| 10 | Llama 3.1 405B Turbo (Meta) | 18 | 31 | 1.72 | 50.0% | 11.1% |
Match-by-Match Audit
- VfB Stuttgart vs BSC Young Boys: 3-2 | Correct tendency: 74.1% (20/27) | Consensus: H (74.1%)
- GO Ahead Eagles vs SC Braga: 0-0 | Correct tendency: 0.0% (0/25) | Consensus: A (96.0%)
- Lille vs SC Freiburg: 1-0 | Correct tendency: 7.7% (2/26) | Consensus: A (69.2%)
- Panathinaikos vs AS Roma: 1-1 | Correct tendency: 17.4% (4/23) | Consensus: A (82.6%)
- FC Basel 1893 vs Plzen: 0-1 | Correct tendency: 64.0% (16/25) | Consensus: A (64.0%)
- Lyon vs PAOK: 4-2 | Correct tendency: 50.0% (12/24) | Consensus: H (50.0%)
- Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bologna: 0-3 | Correct tendency: 88.9% (24/27) | Consensus: A (88.9%)
- FC Midtjylland vs Dinamo Zagreb: 2-0 | Correct tendency: 76.0% (19/25) | Consensus: H (76.0%)
- Celtic vs Utrecht: 4-2 | Correct tendency: 37.5% (9/24) | Consensus: H (37.5%)
- FC Porto vs Rangers: 3-1 | Correct tendency: 75.0% (18/24) | Consensus: H (75.0%)
- Sturm Graz vs Brann: 1-0 | Correct tendency: 4.0% (1/25) | Consensus: A (68.0%)
- FK Crvena Zvezda vs Celta Vigo: 1-1 | Correct tendency: 33.3% (9/27) | Consensus: A (55.6%)
- Real Betis vs Feyenoord: 2-1 | Correct tendency: 54.5% (12/22) | Consensus: H (54.5%)
- FCSB vs Fenerbahçe: 1-1 | Correct tendency: 14.8% (4/27) | Consensus: A (81.5%)
- Aston Villa vs Red Bull Salzburg: 3-2 | Correct tendency: 84.6% (22/26) | Consensus: H (84.6%)
- Genk vs Malmo FF: 2-1 | Correct tendency: 80.0% (20/25) | Consensus: H (80.0%)
- Nottingham Forest vs Ferencvarosi TC: 4-0 | Correct tendency: 7.7% (2/26) | Consensus: A (61.5%)
- Ludogorets vs Nice: 1-0 | Correct tendency: 37.5% (9/24) | Consensus: H (37.5%)
Biggest Consensus Misses
- GO Ahead Eagles vs SC Braga (0-0) | Consensus: A (96.0%)
- Panathinaikos vs AS Roma (1-1) | Consensus: A (82.6%)
- FCSB vs Fenerbahçe (1-1) | Consensus: A (81.5%)
- Lille vs SC Freiburg (1-0) | Consensus: A (69.2%)
- Sturm Graz vs Brann (1-0) | Consensus: A (68.0%)
Methodology
Total model predictions: 452 across 18 matches. Avg correct tendency: 44.84%. Points system: 3 pts for correct tendency, +4 pts for exact score (if tendency correct). Models with <3 matches excluded. Consensus determined by predicted outcome distribution.
Generation cost: $0.0034
Tokens: 7,641 input + 1,580 output
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