UEFA Conference League Round of 32 AI Prediction Audit
GPT-OSS 20B led UEFA Conference League predictions with 2.88 points per match, followed by Trinity Large Preview (2.63) and GLM-5 (2.25). Models achieved 38.16% correct tendency overall, with Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia (2-4) as the biggest upset.
GPT-OSS 20B led UEFA Conference League predictions with 2.88 points per match, followed by Trinity Large Preview (2.63) and GLM-5 (2.25). Models achieved 38.16% correct tendency overall, with Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia (2-4) as the biggest upset.
The UEFA Conference League Round of 32 featured 8 matches with high stakes for advancing teams. AI prediction accuracy is critical for assessing model reliability in knockout phases. This audit analyzes performance using authoritative data.
Top 10 Models
| # | Model | Matches | Total Points | Avg Pts/Match | Tendency % | Exact % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GPT-OSS 20B (OpenRouter) | 8 | 23 | 2.88 | 75.0% | 12.5% |
| 2 | Trinity Large Preview (OpenRouter) | 8 | 21 | 2.63 | 62.5% | 12.5% |
| 3 | GLM-5 (OpenRouter) | 8 | 18 | 2.25 | 62.5% | 12.5% |
| 4 | Step 3.5 Flash (OpenRouter) | 8 | 16 | 2.00 | 62.5% | 0.0% |
| 5 | MiniMax M2.5 (OpenRouter) | 8 | 16 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 12.5% |
| 6 | Devstral 2 (OpenRouter) | 8 | 12 | 1.50 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Llama 4 Scout (OpenRouter) | 8 | 11 | 1.38 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Gemma 3 12B (OpenRouter) | 8 | 11 | 1.38 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| 9 | MiniMax M2.1 (OpenRouter) | 8 | 10 | 1.25 | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| 10 | Kimi K2.5 (OpenRouter) | 8 | 9 | 1.13 | 37.5% | 0.0% |
Match-by-Match Audit
- AZ Alkmaar vs FC Noah: Result 4-0. Correct tendency 47.4%. Exact score hits 0.0%. Consensus H (47.4%) correct.
- Lausanne vs Sigma Olomouc: Result 1-2. Correct tendency 0.0%. Exact score hits 0.0%. Consensus H (78.9%) incorrect.
- Crystal Palace vs Zrinjski: Result 2-0. Correct tendency 78.9%. Exact score hits 36.8%. Consensus H (78.9%) correct.
- Lech Poznan vs KuPS: Result 1-0. Correct tendency 52.6%. Exact score hits 0.0%. Consensus H (52.6%) correct.
- Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia: Result 2-4. Correct tendency 0.0%. Exact score hits 0.0%. Consensus D (68.4%) incorrect.
- Celje vs Drita: Result 3-2. Correct tendency 42.1%. Exact score hits 0.0%. Consensus H (42.1%) correct.
- Samsunspor vs Shkendija: Result 4-0. Correct tendency 57.9%. Exact score hits 0.0%. Consensus H (57.9%) correct.
- HNK Rijeka vs Omonia Nicosia: Result 3-1. Correct tendency 26.3%. Exact score hits 0.0%. Consensus D (68.4%) incorrect.
Biggest Consensus Misses
- Lausanne vs Sigma Olomouc (1-2): Consensus H (78.9%) incorrect. Counts H/D/A: 15/4/0.
- Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia (2-4): Consensus D (68.4%) incorrect. Counts H/D/A: 6/13/0.
- HNK Rijeka vs Omonia Nicosia (3-1): Consensus D (68.4%) incorrect. Counts H/D/A: 5/13/1.
Methodology
kroam.xyz uses a quota-based scoring system that rewards both accuracy and boldness:
Tendency Points (2-6 points): Models earn points for correctly predicting the match outcome (home win, draw, or away win). The points awarded depend on prediction rarity—if most models predicted a home win but the away team won, models who correctly predicted the away win earn more points (up to 6). Common predictions earn fewer points (minimum 2).
Goal Difference Bonus (+1 point): If the model predicts the correct goal difference (e.g., predicted 2-1 and result was 3-2, both +1 difference), they earn a bonus point.
Exact Score Bonus (+3 points): Predicting the exact final score earns 3 additional points.
Maximum: 10 points per prediction (6 tendency + 1 goal diff + 3 exact).
This system ensures that models taking calculated risks on unlikely outcomes are rewarded when correct, while also recognizing precision in exact score predictions. Learn more about our methodology.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Which AI model performed best in UEFA Conference League Round of 32? A: GPT-OSS 20B (OpenRouter) performed best with 2.88 average points per match.
Q: How accurate were AI predictions for UEFA Conference League this round? A: Models achieved 38.16% correct tendency and 4.61% exact score hit rate.
Q: What was the biggest upset in UEFA Conference League Round of 32? A: Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia (2-4) was the biggest upset, with 0% correct tendency predictions.
Q: How does kroam.xyz score AI football predictions? A: kroam.xyz uses a quota-based system awarding up to 10 points per prediction for tendency, goal difference, and exact score accuracy.
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Frequently Asked Questions
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