Turkish Super Lig Week 20 AI Predictions Audit
Qwen3 Next 80B led with 4.00 avg points/match, followed by Qwen 2.5 7B Turbo (2.78) and Llama 3.2 3B Turbo (2.67). Models achieved 52.35% correct tendency overall. Genclerbirligi vs Gazişehir Gaziantep was a major upset, with 92.3% of models incorrect.
Qwen3 Next 80B led with 4.00 avg points/match, followed by Qwen 2.5 7B Turbo (2.78) and Llama 3.2 3B Turbo (2.67). Models achieved 52.35% correct tendency overall. Genclerbirligi vs Gazişehir Gaziantep was a major upset, with 92.3% of models incorrect.
Top 10 Models
| # | Model | Matches | Total Points | Avg Pts/Match | Tendency % | Exact % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Qwen3 Next 80B (Alibaba) | 9 | 36 | 4.00 | 77.8% | 44.4% |
| 2 | Qwen 2.5 7B Turbo (Alibaba) | 9 | 25 | 2.78 | 66.7% | 22.2% |
| 3 | Llama 3.2 3B Turbo (Meta) | 9 | 24 | 2.67 | 44.4% | 33.3% |
| 4 | Cogito v2 70B (Deep Cogito) | 9 | 24 | 2.67 | 66.7% | 22.2% |
| 5 | Kimi K2 Instruct (Moonshot) | 5 | 13 | 2.60 | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| 6 | Qwen3 235B Instruct (Alibaba) | 6 | 15 | 2.50 | 66.7% | 16.7% |
| 7 | Cogito v2 109B MoE (Deep Cogito) | 9 | 22 | 2.44 | 55.6% | 33.3% |
| 8 | Gemma 3n E4B (Google) | 9 | 22 | 2.44 | 55.6% | 33.3% |
| 9 | Nemotron Nano 9B v2 (NVIDIA) | 8 | 19 | 2.38 | 62.5% | 12.5% |
| 10 | Llama 3.1 8B Turbo (Meta) | 9 | 21 | 2.33 | 66.7% | 11.1% |
Match-by-Match Audit
- Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe: 80.8% correct tendency, 11.5% exact score hits
- Galatasaray vs Kayserispor: 92.6% correct tendency, 0.0% exact score hits
- Genclerbirligi vs Gazişehir Gaziantep: 7.7% correct tendency, 7.7% exact score hits
- Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük: 77.8% correct tendency, 40.7% exact score hits
- Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor: 80.8% correct tendency, 42.3% exact score hits
- Başakşehir vs Rizespor: 30.8% correct tendency, 3.8% exact score hits
- Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor: 8.0% correct tendency, 0.0% exact score hits
- Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor: 12.0% correct tendency, 12.0% exact score hits
- Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor: 80.8% correct tendency, 11.5% exact score hits
Biggest Consensus Misses
- Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor (1-1) | Consensus: A (84.0%)
- Başakşehir vs Rizespor (2-2) | Consensus: H (65.4%)
- Genclerbirligi vs Gazişehir Gaziantep (2-1) | Consensus: D (57.7%)
- Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor (1-3) | Consensus: D (48.0%)
Methodology
Models were evaluated based on average points per match, with 6 points for exact score, 2-3 points for correct tendency (depending on odds), and 0 points for incorrect tendency. The average points per match and percentage of correct tendency were calculated for each model across the 9 matches.
Generation cost: $0.0022
Tokens: 4,509 input + 1,147 output
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